The driving factors behind the stock markets in fiscal year 2018/19 were largely political. The developments in the trade conflict between the US and China, as well as in the Brexit negotiations, considerably impacted share price developments during the entire reporting period. In combination with economic weakness in China and the US and fear of the US Federal Reserve increasing interest rates, this led to a significant slump on the stock markets at the end of 2018: the DAX fell from 12,339 points at the start of the fiscal year to 10,559 points at the end of the calendar year – after a low of 10,382 points on December 27, 2018. Nevertheless, this was followed by a distinct recovery phase in the new year, which corrected the pessimistic expectations of the preceding months. The strong surge in key US indices supported this development. In mid-April, the DAX climbed above the 12,000-point mark again. Afterward, more announcements of tariffs in the ongoing trade conflict and stagnating Brexit negotiations caused investors to get nervous again. The prospect of easing monetary policy in the US and Europe more than compensated for this, however, and the DAX reached a fiscal-year high of 12,630 points on July 4, 2019. Driven by the political developments described, the capital markets were volatile until the end of the fiscal year: the DAX fell to an interim low of 11,413 points in mid-August but rose again, closing the fiscal year at 12,428 points, due to signals that the trade conflict could be easing up, the prospect that a no-deal Brexit might be avoided, and looser monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB).
The performance of Aurubis shares was also significantly impacted by internal factors, in addition to the uncertain mood on the capital market. The shares started at their fiscal-year high (closing price) of € 61.02 on October 1, 2018 and declined in Q1 of the fiscal year in line with the international stock markets. In particular following the ad hoc announcement on November 26, 2018, stating that the 2018/19 forecast for the operating result would be reduced to “moderately” (-5 % to -15 %) below the previous year, the shares lost considerable ground and closed 2018 at € 43.22. Stock markets recovered at the start of 2019, and Aurubis shares also exceeded the € 50 mark in early April before the announcement on April 26, 2019 regarding the further reduction in the full-year forecast for 2018/19 to “significantly” (>-15 %) below the previous year strained the share price once again. The shares continued to decline and hit their fiscal-year low of € 35.60 in mid-August after the release of the nine-month results, in a nervous capital market environment. In a more positive market environment, the shares rose 22 % until mid-September, nevertheless closing the fiscal year lower at € 40.89 on September 30, 2019. With a performance of -32 % for the fiscal year overall, the shares were considerably behind the development of the DAX (1 %), the MDAX (0 %), and the STOXX Europe 600 (3 %). Market capitalization was € 1,838 million as at fiscal year-end (previous year: € 2,708 million). Since June 24, 2019, the shares have not been part of the STOXX Europe 600.
|2018/19 2||2017/18 2||2016/17 2||2015/16 2||2014/15 2|
|Closing price as at fiscal year-end 1||in €||40.89||60.24||68.54||49.88||56.9|
|Year high (close) 1||in €||61.02||86.12||78.47||61.68||59.68|
|Year low (close) 1||in €||35.6||55.44||46.79||37.54||36.43|
|Market capitalization as at fiscal year-end 1||in € million||1,838||2,708||3,081||2,242||2,558|
|Number of shares as at fiscal year-end||in '000||44,956.70||44,956.70||44,956.70||44,956.70||44,956.70|
|Dividend or recommended dividend||in €||1.25||1.55||1.45||1.25||1.35|
|Payout ratio 3||in %||41||26||28||34||24|
|Dividend yield||in %||3.1||2.6||2.1||2.5||2.4|
|Operating earnings per share||in €||3.08||5.87||5.21||3.64||5.68|
|Operating price/earnings ratio as at fiscal year-end||13.28||10.26||13.16||13.7||10.02|
|1 Xetra disclosures.|
2 Values have been “operationally” adjusted for measurement effects deriving from the use of the average cost method in accordance with IAS 2. In consequence, metal price fluctuations resulting from the use of the average cost method are also eliminated, as are the non-permanent write-downs or write-ups of copper inventories as at the reporting date. Fixed assets are adjusted by non-cash-effective impacts deriving from purchase price allocations.
3 In FY 2016/17, the payout ratio definition was changed compared to the previous year. The new basis is the operating net result and no longer Aurubis AG’s unappropriated earnings.
Aurubis shares remain an attractive long-term investment. Shareholders who, for example, invested € 1,000 at the end of September 2009 and reinvested the dividends they received (without a tax deduction) into Aurubis shares had a portfolio value of € 1,789 on September 30, 2019. This is an 84.91 % increase in value or a total annual return of 5.99 %.
Trading volume of Aurubis shares exceeds previous year
The volatility in the Aurubis share price was also reflected in the daily average Xetra trading volume, which, at 221,144 shares, exceeded the prior-year level (217,736 shares).
Aurubis has a well-diversified shareholder structure
Aurubis maintained its stable and well-diversified shareholder structure in fiscal year 2018/19. Salzgitter Mannesmann GmbH increased its shareholding, according to a voting rights notification dated December 13, 2018, from 20 % to 25 %. In its analyst conference on the first half of 2019, Salzgitter announced that the stake in Aurubis AG had been increased to 30 % minus one share. An analysis carried out in September/October 2019 indicated that the proportion of institutional investors decreased slightly to 45 % (previous year: 53 %). The proportions in the rest of Europe and North America declined, while substantial increases were recorded in the UK/Ireland. London-based Silchester International Investors LLP holds a 10.03 % stake, according to a voting rights notification dated October 9, 2019. Rossmann Beteiligungs GmbH, Burgwedel, holds a 5.005 % stake in Aurubis AG, according to a voting rights notification dated August 23, 2019. The majority of institutional investors are located outside of Germany. The proportion of shares held by retail investors decreased to 25 % (previous year: 27 %).
Executive Board and Supervisory Board suggest a dividend of € 1.25
The objective of our dividend policy is to allow our shareholders to participate in the company’s success adequately and continuously. The Executive Board and Supervisory Board will recommend a dividend of € 1.25 at the Annual General Meeting on February 27, 2020. This corresponds to a payout ratio of 41 % of the operating consolidated net income (previous year: 26 %). The dividend yield based on the closing price as at September 30, 2019 amounts to 3.1 % (previous year: 2.6 %).
Prompt, targeted capital market communication
Our capital market communication in fiscal year 2018/19 focused intensively on our reduced operating performance due to planned and unplanned shutdowns, on the appointment of a new Executive Board chairman, and on external and internal growth projects. Furthermore, the volatile market environment, the varying developments on our submarkets, and the company’s resulting earnings trend led to a high demand for information among capital market participants. We met this need with proactive, prompt communication tailored to our target groups. We informed our private and institutional investors about the Aurubis Group’s current business performance and potential through different channels. Dialogue with institutional investors was once again a significant pillar of our capital market communication. The Executive Board and the Investor Relations department discussed the current business situation and the Aurubis Group strategy at many investor conferences and roadshows at the main financial centers in Europe and North America, in conference calls, and in a number of individual meetings. Webcasts on the release dates of our quarterly reports enabled investors and analysts to communicate with the Executive Board and management representatives. Moreover, many investors were informed about our processes, operating facilities, and products during visits to our Hamburg site.
We informed the capital markets about extraordinary developments in the form of ad hoc announcements, which were as follows:
- Announcement on October 10, 2018: The European Commission expressed reservations, from the perspective of merger control law, regarding the approval of the sale of Segment FRP
- Announcement on November 1, 2018: According to preliminary figures, Aurubis AG generated operating earnings before taxes (EBT) of € 63 million in Q4 of fiscal year 2017/18 (previous year: € 87 million), which is below current market expectations (€ 73 million)
- Announcement on November 26, 2018: Aurubis AG expects its operating result for fiscal year 2018/19 to be moderately below previous year
- Announcement on December 10, 2018: Change in Executive Board chairmanship in mid-2019
- Announcement on January 30, 2019: Roland Harings to become new CEO of Aurubis AG
- Announcement on April 26, 2019: Aurubis AG generates preliminary quarterly earnings of € 63 million and reduces full-year forecast
- Announcement on May 22, 2019: Aurubis acquires Metallo Group
- Announcement on June 12, 2019: Executive Board Chairman Jürgen Schachler relieved from his duties, effective immediately, and FCM investment project halted
A total of 17 financial analysts from national and international research firms regularly published recommendations and analyses about Aurubis’ shares during fiscal year 2018/19. Deutsche Bank resumed coverage again in July 2019 after a change in analysts. Coverage at Macquarie is currently suspended. The ratings were as follows at the end of the fiscal year:
We held four dialogue events for our retail shareholders this year. At our Hamburg site and our recycling site in Lünen, around 300 shareholders gathered extensive information about the current development of the Group and its economic environment and had the opportunity to speak with Aurubis managers and employees. We held presentations for retail investors at events organized by private shareholder associations as well. The high level of interest in our shares was also evident at our wellattended Annual General Meeting on February 28, 2019, in which over 1,000 shareholders participated. Shareholders were also able to follow the Executive Board Chairman’s speech live online, where it was also made available after the event.
Current information on the development of the company is available at www.aurubis.com. We provide financial reports, analyst presentations, and additional publications in our download center.
|Security Identification Number||676650|
|International Securities Identification Number (ISIN)||DE 000 67 66 504|
|Stock market segment||MDAX|
|Stock exchanges||Regulated market: Frankfurt am Main and Hamburg; unofficial market: Berlin, Düsseldorf, Hanover, Munich, Stuttgart, Tradegate|
|Market segment||Prime Standard|
|Issue price||€ 12.78|
|Average daily trading volume||221,144 shares in Xetra trading|
|Baader Bank||Christian Obst|
|Bankhaus Lampe||Marc Gabriel|
|Bank of America Merrill Lynch||Olivia Du|
|Deutsche Bank||Bastian Synagowitz (since July 2019)|
|DZ Bank||Dirk Schlamp|
|Exane BNP Paribas||Jatinder Goel|
|Goldman Sachs||Eugene King|
|Hauck & Aufhäuser||Henning Breiter|
|Independent Research GmbH||Sven Diermeier|
|Kepler Cheuvreux||Rochus Brauneiser|
|Macquarie Research1||Ioannis Masvoulas|
|Morgan Stanley||Dan Shaw|
|Quirin Bank AG||Klaus Soer|
|M.M. Warburg||Eggert Kuls|
|1 Coverage currently suspended due to a change in analyst.|